The Drawn Supremacy
Seven games into the 2021/22 Championship season and we've won two, lost two and drawn three. Here I take a deeper look at whether three consecutive draws should be a cause for any concern.
Far from Drawful
I’ve never been a massive fan of draws - the points being shared and inevitably both sets of fans leave with a sense of disappointment of what could have or should have been.
We’re only seven games into the 2021/22 Championship season and yet this season, more than any other, seems determined to change my long-held opinion about draws and it’s working.
This seasons three draws have each, in their own way, shown me more about the talent, determination and attitude of this year’s Luton side than the other games. I’d even go so far to say as I’ve loved them and whilst, on paper, we’ve only garnered a measly three points from them, they’ve felt meaningful.
In this piece I’ll attempt to understand my new fond fondness for draws and take a deeper look at what, if any, meaningful insights and conclusions, even this early in the season, we can take from them.
Luton Town 0 - Sheffield United 0
United we stand
Facing two of the recently relegated sides in the first five games was always going to be a challenge. They felt very much like a free hit as any points from either game was going to be a bonus. Even a Wilder-less Sheffield United who were severely lacking form was a daunting prospect.
It turned out that my trepidation was unwarranted. Not because Sheffield United weren’t a decent outfit, they were, but that we out-pressed, out-passed and overall out-performed them on the day.
Whilst we didn’t dominate the ball (in terms of possession) and me stating we ‘out-passed’ them has more to do with my enjoyment of alliteration than fact (as they out-passed us in hugely in terms of volume - 176 to their 420) - I did really feel that our passing, when it clicked, led slightly more than The Blades managed to achieve - especially in the attacking third.
In reality, it wasn’t a game dominated by passing moves from either side. For us it was more of a test, much like our game against Barnsley, of our ability to press a side who see far more of the ball than us and of our shape (4-1-4-1).
The key themes that both impressed and entertained me were that of body-on-the-line defending, an intense and relentless press and the performances of those introduced to the Starting XI to do a specific role. Namely Alan Campbell with his tireless press and scrapping, Gabriel Osho’s confidence, composure and crunching tackles in his first time (in his career!) in the CDM role and Reece Burke’s sensible and commanding debut at the heart of our defence.
For more take aways about each player who started the game click into this thread 👇
I left The Kenny thoroughly entertained by a goalless draw. Something that felt an altogether foreign experience as almost all of the goalless draws last season had very much felt like games that petered out before they even began - that was certainly not the case against The Blades. It was a battle from start to finish and one in which we very much held our own against quality opposition.
Blackburn Rovers 2 - Luton Town 2
It’s not Rovers’ until it’s over
Our board and our manager strive to be as honest and transparent as they can be with us and I think one of the things we, as fans, do in return is be that bit more understanding about the challenges we face both on and off the pitch.
The main challenges, when we headed up to Ewood Park, happened before a ball had even been kicked. Bell and Adebayo who’d been instrumental and ever present up until that point in the season were noticeable absences in the match day squad. Then losing The Admiral (Muskwe) in the warm up left us fans well aware of the size of the task at hand. A task which was further compounded by the injury sustained to the instrumental1 Alan Campbell following, what can only be described as, a ‘horror challenge’.
At that point getting anything from the game felt like an uphill battle as our heavily changed XI had to roll with the relentless injury punches.
Blackburn then managed to convert both of their only meaningful shots in the first half leaving us, for all intense and purposes, dead and buried. At that point I Tweeted this…
But we are no longer a side who rolls over without a fight. The fight that saw us defend so resolutely against Sheffield United was called into action at various points in the second half. Again it was bodies-on-the-line defending backed by some truly incredible saves from Croatia’s finest (or second finest if you go by the national team’s unwillingness to ever give Sluga a start 🙄).
I’ve often been fairly vocal, both on Twitter and in the stands, about Nathan’s apparent unwillingness to make what appear to be clear and obvious changes in good time so as they might be able to have an effect on the game2. More recently (and maybe we have his time at Stoke to thank for this) his reading of the game and ability to identify where we might need to change has come into its own.
When Luke Berry was swapped in for debutant Carlos Mendes-Gomes who’d been very much thrown in at the deep end having to replace the injured Muskwe few of us could’ve envisaged the impact he’d have. Berry, who I don’t think too many Hatters fans would’ve been overly shocked to see depart in the summer, turned out to be exactly what we needed with his innate ability to time his runs into the box and be in very much the right place (as the xG chart shows below) at the right time. His chances were so clear cut that he ended his 39 minute cameo with as much cumulative xG as the entire Blackburn team managed in the whole 98 minutes.
After an appalling start to the game both in terms of injuries and our defensive errors we finished up with a point so monumental that it felt like three. We never gave in and kept pushing and pushing for a way back into the game. I’m not really sure what stats properly identify that level of dogged determination but it was clear for all to see. Perhaps the xG chart above showing how we many chances we created in the final third of the game or Berry making team of the week having only been on the pitch for such a short time or us collecting 5 yellow cards each feeling like it was in honour of Campbell’s ankle ligaments.
Lansbury perfectly embodied the spirit and attitude of the team. For someone who only joined in the summer he looked the most likely to get a second yellow and his combativeness and unwillingness to be bullied by his opponents or the officials shone almost as bright as his passing and his technical ability.
Writing this reminded me of our first season in the Championship when we, as the new kid in the second tier playground, felt like we were easily picked on by the bigger, stronger and more long standing kids in the league - these games have clearly shown me that we are no longer that. Whether at home or on the road we are not to be fucked with and I absolutely love it3.
(Note: Not often you see a manager like this after drawing a game - shows just how much it meant to him and to us the fans)
Bristol City 1 - Luton Town 1
Bristol Creamed
Unlike the other two previous draws which were fairly even affairs in terms of both talent on display and chances created our game against Bristol City at Ashton Gate was not. We destroyed them - well at least in terms of chance creation and xG (see below) we did.
It was utterly baffling how we managed to reach half time without scoring at least one goal. The positives were very much centred around both the volume and quality of the chances we created. Lansbury (as you’ll note topping the xA charts) proved beyond doubt that he is the progressive (top 10 progressive passer in the league) and creative spark that we’ve been anxious has been missing since KD-H’s return to Leicester. His ability to see and more importantly pick a pass is amongst the best we’ve seen in Hatters shirt for many years.
As a Luton it felt like we knew this type of game only too well. One where we’d dominated but been unable to convert any of our chances (and in fairness to their keeper Daniel Bentley that was in no small part down to him) and then we, inevitably, concede very much against the run of play.
But yet again this wasn’t the Luton of old who I fear may have begrudged our lack of fortune so much that it would’ve distracted them from the task at hand until it was too late. This Luton side went on to create more chances with our tenacity and our resolute fighting spirit lasted right up until the final whistle - just before which (Super) Danny Hylton had ensured that Bristol City’s run of not winning in front of their crowd since January 2020 continued (admittedly this is fairly COVID reliant stat - it’s been since Jan of this year that they’ve not won at home).
And whilst their fans sang 🎶 How shit must you be we’re winning at home 🎶 they surely knew two things to be true - we were by far the better side and that they’d be gutted if we were to snatch a draw right at the death.
Hylton scoring the goal was yet another show of the never say die attitude of this group of players. Nathan Jones subsequently confirmed he’d turned down multiple offers from other clubs to fight back from injuries and stake his claim as a (our) Championship striker.
Club Fight
Three draws. Three brilliant draws in their own unique right.
With the biggest take away being the sheer togetherness and determination to fight tooth and nail for this club, for this manager and for each other.
Whilst statistically it’s not easy to measure team spirit and attitude it’s clear to see and feel that on the pitch it’s at almost an all time high.
From a data perspective it has been interesting to note that according the Opta / The Analyst we currently sit joint second in the league for the lowest Passes Per Defensive Action allowed (an established proxy measure of ‘the press’ - showing that the numbers are there to back up just how relentless our press feels to watch.
(Note: This is only a small sample size and whilst it’s a good indicator of how we’re currently playing it’s quite early to be drawing wide reaching conclusions).
Couple the press with our desire to put our bodies on line defensively and our desire to win the the ball back (see below) and our determination is clear.
I also loved seeing that Pelly is second overall when it comes to tackles made - having made 21 so far this season (15% of our overall tackle total).
Before the start of the season I had worried that losing some of our longest serving players would mean that it would take time for us not only to gel whilst playing together but also that willingness to fight for each other. And whilst there’s signs that we’re beginning to find our feet in terms of playing style (understandable as we had more churn this summer than a Lurpak factory4 - keeping just 63% of the squad that primarily played last season) we are more than there in terms of attitude and fighting spirit.
In previous seasons three consecutive draws would’ve had me hearing distant alarm bells that couldn’t be further from where I am now. We appear to have a squad that’s packed with potential - it’s also younger, more technical and more tenacious squad than those we’ve seen for a good while and these types of draws are not worrying to me in the slightest.
Next up Swansea at home - The Swans themselves visit us off the back of two 0-0 draws against Hull and most recently Millwall - with the cumulative xG and shot counts suggesting they were unfortunate to not score in either game.
Another solid test of our fighting spirit and resolve lays ahead.
#COYH
When I say instrumental here about Campbell it very much refers to his ability to tirelessly press and to recover the ball fast when we lose possession - as was very apparent in the game against Sheffield United. I can imagine it was tricky for both the players and the manager to adapt our style once he was subbed off.
Acknowledging here that, as a fan, it’s very easy to chastise managers for not making substitutions as there’s little to no comeback for claiming that a sub or multiple subs would’ve been the best course of action. Mainly because when that course of action doesn’t materialise there’s no way of knowing if it’d would’ve been better or worse. But a lot of the time I convince myself that I can see what clearly needs changing and for who - when in reality I know little of the inner workings of the squad or their fitness at that time and am just, much like a curious toddler, trying to match certain shaped pieces into the holes before me. It’s lazy but I doubt I’ll stop it anytime soon - it’s part and parcel of being a fan.
A few people may note at this point that on paper it would appear we got utterly dominated and ‘fucked with’ by Birmingham City in their 5-0 demolition of us at Kenilworth Road. I’d however argue that that game was more a result of bad luck and not seeming to get the rub of the green / taking our chances / being caught clumsily on the counter for their third match-defining goal than anything else. We were far from bullied, slightly outplayed by the magnificent Tahith Chong yes, but bullied no.
Yes, I’ve used this ‘gag’ both on Twitter and in an interview before - but have yet to come up with a better one so apologies for trotting it out again.