#TheBigChampPreview - a closer look at Luton Town for the 2020/21 Championship Season
The ins, the outs and how we see it shaking all about
A REVIEW BEFORE THE PREVIEW
The distinct lack of a summer break has meant I now find myself writing up a preview of our 2020/21 season before I’ve finished my review of the last third of the last season (the Nathan Jones part two to my Graeme Jones part one).
Thanks to Nathan Jones working a minor miracle (actually for me it was more parting the Red Sea than the turning water into wine stuff - but that’s because it felt like it meant so much - both emotionally and financially to our club) and a dramatic final day that saw us win a game 3-2 despite only having one shot on target - I’m writing a Championship ‘how we’re setting ourselves up to cement our position in this beast of a league’ preview as opposed to a ‘I’m sure we can bounce back despite potential financial limitations’ League One piece.
Last season - in short: We took a risk (what looked to be a fairly shrewd one) on a coach who felt ready for his managerial debut season - problem is the Championship, as we all know only too well, is a ruthless and unrelenting league. He recruited well, was tactically fairly astute (despite stubbornly not wanting to budge when his ‘play out from the back’ experiment had clearly failed) however he was also managerially naive in terms of keeping the squad happy and what he said to the press. Players didn’t really buy into him and neither did the fans and it took the return of the snakey-devious-money-grabbing-mid-transfer-window-leaving-bastard/true king/chosen one/Messiah/Welsh wizard to save us from what seemed like odds on impending doom and in doing so he bought himself redemption for leaving to go to Stoke(!) and us another season in this wonderful league.
THE 2019/20 LUTON TOWN FIRST TEAM SQUAD
As you can see from the chart above our squad from last season was fairly balanced in terms of age - with the average age of the top 15 starting players (in terms of minutes played) being 25.9.
INS AND OUTS
Despite the fact we’ve now re-signed James Bree (on a free after we believe he was released by Villa - details still somewhat unclear here) we have lost a fair bit of youthful impetus (see blue dots) - with Luke Bolton (now at Dundee United), Cameron Carter-Vickers - CCV (now pre-seasoning with Spurs) and Izzy Brown (now scoring match winning cup pens for Sheffield Wednesday) - all returning to their parent clubs from season-long loans with us.
With Carter-Vickers being by far our best CB after he arrived in the January window and Izzy Brown being responsible for the vast majority of our creative output, this window will prove a crucial one.
In terms of reflecting who Luton fans wanted to see return the most this poll is a fairly accurate representation but in fairness to Izzy the question was asked while CCV was going through a rich vein of form - the honest truth, as fans, is we would’ve loved to have kept both.
But it’s looking most likely that both those talented ships have sailed - somewhat surprisingly we didn’t go in for Izzy and us such he was snapped up by Sheffield Wednesday who are going to need him to stay firing fit if they’re going to escape the 12 point deduction. And despite Spurs never having shown the slightest bit of interest in actually giving CCV a shot at first team action since returning from us Mourinho has seen fit to feature him in every one of their pre-season games and he looks set to stay in North London for the season (grrrrrr *shakes fist in the air* this is why I hate loan deals so much!).
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Other Players Out - First Teamers
Callum McManaman - RW/LW - 917 mins - last season in which he scored some vital goals and showed there’s still a few tricks in his locker - currently training with Wigan (where he is somewhat of a fan favourite).
Jacob Butterfield - 30 - CM/CDM - 855 mins - Never quite clicked with us as he was unable to fill the CDM void left by Glen Rea’s injury.
Donervon Daniels - 25 - CB/RB - 193 mins - filled in for us at RB and CB after having a decent first half of the season at Doncaster but despite having the best shot accuracy in the team/league (one shot, one header, one goal) we saw him as surplus to requirements and he’s gone on to sign for Crewe - where I think he’ll do well.
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Players in (as of 6 September):
Jordan Clark - 26 - RM/CAM - Accrington - Free - Without Izzy Brown’s ability to create chances (and with Andrew Shinnie seemingly struggling to adjust to life back in Championship) we needed someone with solid creative output numbers. In steps Accrington’s Jordan Clark who had an excellent season in League One. He topped the charts for number of 1vs1 dribbles (264 in total), was second on pre-assists (four) and key passes (26) and third on deep completions (63) and progressive runs (92).
If he can oust one Nathan’s first team regulars I really feel like he’s going to be pivotal to where we finish this year and definitely one to watch both in terms of creating chances but also scoring them too (see pre-season gif below). Will be intrigued to see if he features as RM/RW or challenges Lee for the CAM role at the tip of our beloved diamond.
James Bree - 22 - RB - Villa - Free(?) - Bree appeared 39 times for us last season and despite being berated by some for poor performances when filling in at left back (Whoscored.com having him at an average of 6.36 at LB vs 6.71 at RB) he became a firm fan favourite - contributing five assists thanks to some excellent set piece delivery. He was another one, along with Luke Berry and Elliot Lee, who seemed to gain an immense amount of confidence and assertiveness from Nathan’s return (with Berry and Lee benefitting from some much needed game time). Thanks to a comparison from the manager to ex-Hatter and then Premier League fullback Jack Stacey and a heart-to-heart with Nathan in which a few home truths were shared - he emerged a different, more complete player. I found it interesting to read Alan Hutton’s comments about why he felt Bree had failed to succeed at Villa - namely that he was a very shy, quiet boy who lacked confidence in a ‘rowdy’ dressing room. With Nathan (dubbed by Statsbomb’s Oli Walker as the “fullback whisperer”) hopefully instilling some of that confidence back in him - I’m expecting a BIG season for the athletic and undeniably talented fullback.
Tom Lockyer - 25 - CB - Charlton - Free - With the return of CCV looking unlikely I was reassured to see that Nathan (and the board) still had plans to improve us defensively - having conceded the second most goals in the league (82) this felt like a must. With Tom Lockyer we’ve found ourselves a young Welsh international who featured heavily in the Championship last season making 43 starts for the Addicks. He seemed a real fan favourite of theirs that is until we/he triggered a clause in his contract that meant (presumably due to their relegation) that we could snap him up on a free - at which point he became the worst player they’ve ever had. Lockyer the ex-Bristol Rovers academy graduate is now the regular CB starter for Wales alongside Chelsea’s Ethan Ampudu and not only is he starting (at the time of writing) he’s helped secure back-to-back clean sheets for his country in their recent UEFA Nations League games. It’ll be intriguing to see how easily he slots in at the back for us.
Rhys Norrington-Davies (RN-D) - 21 - LB/LM - Sheffield United - Season-long loan - In RN-D all Luton fans hope we’ve found a fitting progressive/attacking LB replacement for James Justin. With current LB options being the less forwardly adventurous Dan Potts and the injury recuperating Brendan Galloway we struggled last season to get into any attacking rhythm on the left hand side (giving us a somewhat lopsided approach with the marauding Bree on the right). After a comprehensive and eye-catching loan at League One’s Rochdale last season, the young Welsh U-21 International (we’re loving a Welshy this window) comes into a Luton side in which the LB position is well and truly up for grabs. And with his penchant for a progressive run (he numbered 91 in total last season placing him the 4th highest in the League and 7th in progressive runs per 90) I think/hope he’ll give us the attacking fullback option that Nathan loves so much and that was sorely missed last season. Will be interesting to see who starts the opening few games Potts or RN-D - my money is on RN-D (I’ve compared the two below).
Contract Updates
We also re-signed the following players up on new contracts - Danny Hylton (ST), Luke Berry (CM/CAM), Elliot Lee (CAM/LM/LW), Kazenga LuaLua (LM/LW/ST) and last but not least Glen Rea (CDM/CB).
DIVING INTO THE SQUAD DEPTHS - RECRUITMENT, PLAYERS AND FORMATIONS
So with four in and ten out (including the return of the three loanees) let’s take a look at where we currently stand in terms of depth.
Where I feel we still need to recruit:
An out-and-out Centre Back - Nathan has hinted he might not be done in this window and also that he sees us as only having three ‘real’ CBs (and for a person who prides himself on having two players for each position - I can see this being an issue).
CDM back up / competition for Glen Rea - in our League One title winning season Rea split the role with the truly fantastic Alan McCormack but following his departure we’ve struggled for any sort of a back up plan for this position. Waiting in the wings is the injured Eunan O’Kane but with further setbacks to an already severe double-leg break injury he’s looking unlikely to feature any time soon. Martin Cranie and Pelly Ruddock-Mpanzu can both cover the position if really needed but for me we need a proper defensive midfielder/enforcer - preferably one with decent ball retention and distribution.
A young pacy poacher of an ST - In Collins and Hylton we have two excellent and clinical strikers but an injury to Collins and with Hylton’s shithousery causing disciplinary issues I’d love us to have a young Premier League academy striker (a 9) looking to impress - much in the same stylings as Aaron Connolly who we had in on loan two years ago (whilst he didn’t get game time as he was recovering from injury his talent was undeniable). A loan would suit us best.
(Realistic) Player I’d sign if given the chance:
CCV is a given but the other player I’d love to see in a Hatter’s shirt is Doncaster’s Ben Whiteman - the kid is pure class and if, as is rumoured, Barnsley end up securing his talents I’ll be annoyed that we didn’t try to get him in. His passing direction and range would give us something extra going forward and offer a different option to the much more defensively-minded Rea.
Player(s) who I can most likely see going out on loan:
George Moncur - a brilliant impact sub (or game changer as Nathan likes to refer to them) his versatility across midfield, his ability to change games coming off the bench and lack of a set position has cost him. Think a loan move to keep him firing fit until Jan could work well for both parties.
Most crucial player for the way we play
Glen Rea - his hefty injury last season meant that we only saw him re-emerge to first team duties in January of this year. He is a brilliant ball winner, a level head and a commanding leader on the field (despite not being club captain). His tireless defensive work and ability to protect the back four allows us to be more adventurous going forward and ensures that if Nathan wants to play our 4-1-2-1 diamond that it’s a viable option.
Most exciting prospect
Peter Kioso - RB - signed in January of last year with Jeff Stelling’s best wishes from Hartlepool the 22 year-old looks as assured in defence as he does going forward. With Bree and probably the versatile Martin Cranie ahead of him in the right back pecking order I wonder how much game time he’ll realistically get this season - but I hope he gets the chance to show us what he can do.
Likely Formations
I’m unsure (much like Nathan was at his time at Stoke) whether the tight 4-1-2-1-2 diamond is that feasible as an option in the Championship. The league has some brilliantly rapid wingers who can easily exploit and overload its narrowness as we saw last season (both Diangana and Helder Costa spring straight to mind). So a more sensible and restrained 4-1-4-1 looks like it’ll take precedence as it offers more solid defensive and midfield lines and can be switched to a 4-3-3 easily if we’re chasing the game.
WHERE WE NEED TO IMPROVE
Whilst this, now infamous, Tweet about what David Moyes claimed that his United side needed to improve on is seen as somewhat of a joke (with people acknowledging that he’s basically saying they need to ‘get better at football’) - it’s actually not the worst synopsis for where this current Luton team need to improve.
Passing
Our passing (and therefore our ability to retain possession) could do with some serious work - whilst the performances in the last nine games of the season somewhat put a halt to our calamitous passing out from the back we really need to gel better as a team and get back to our free flowing passing game of seasons past.
Creating chances
As I mentioned earlier Izzy Brown was responsible for the vast majority of our chances that were created but for me (especially under Graeme Jones) we became overly reliant on him doing so. It’d be great to see the likes of Jordan Clark, Harry Cornick, Elliot Lee and the new additions at fullback creating a lot more clear cut chances for the ever reliable Collins to tuck away - we’ve started to see glimmers of this in pre-season and against Norwich in the cup - which is exciting.
Defending
Without the composure of CCV at the back I worry that we may continue to struggle - especially if we continue to let the opposition rain crosses into our boxes leading us to conceding a total of 38 goals in all competitions from crosses.
I’d love to see this same @Experimental361 chart at the end of next season with us not being by far the standout side in the ‘pushovers’ section. Hopefully Lockyer and a more settled back four will see to that.
A possible interesting change to the way we play - a higher/more intense press
With Nathan back in charge it’ll be very interesting to see how we press our opponents. It felt evident to everyone who watched us that our end goal was survival and at a lot of points (especially against the more capable attacking and passing sides) that meant 11 men behind the ball and hit them, where possible, on the counter. But that was then and this is now - we’ve improved the squad and Nathan has come out and said he’s not here just to make up the numbers (pointing to the fact that post-lockdown we were in top six form) meaning that I think we’ll press harder and come out fighting more.
@11pts1win’s chart looking at the effectiveness of our press clearly showing that taking our foot well and truly off the gas (especially in comparison to our League One season) didn’t reap many rewards. (Side note - Barnsley - just wow!)
What you can expect to see when you're watching us:
Keep an eye out for how much we get fouled - as discussed in my season review - we ended up being the team that drew the joint second most fouls in the entire league (that’s just over one every seven minutes of football - #Bullied) and committing the third least - in terms of the fouls drawn vs committed ratio ours was by far the highest.
In particular it’d be worth noting if/when Kazenga LuaLua enters the fray. Last season LuaLua was fouled once every 21 mins (the 2nd highest fouls drawn per/min in the League only behind Charlton’s Jonny Williams). I was intrigued to see some commenters deduce, possibly wrongly, that the gap/drop off between his incredible dribbling success stats and his poor final output stats was down to a serious lack of end product. However I’m not sure they factored in how many times he was taken out by a bamboozled off-balance defender.
How your team is most likely to score against us:
Crosses. I got very cross about crosses this season. 73 percent of all our goals conceded last season were from bloody crosses. I’m hoping that Nathan’s yelling at any of the culprits responsible for allowing easy crosses into the box will put some sort of a stop to that.
Or... a keeper howler
It’s safe to say when Simon Sluga (our record-breaking Croatian signing) looked in his locker last season there were a fair few howlers sitting there just ready and waiting to be deployed at a moment's notice. Whilst again he improved under Nathan and looked far more assured and his fingers far less buttery a solid, less shaky start, from him could make us a lot harder to beat and in turn our season a lot less stressful.
The game I’m most looking forward to…
Watford. Now I’m not one of those fans who obsess over other teams and revel in their every moment of misery nor am I someone who actually hates Watford. For me the rivalry has barely taken any physical form during the time I’ve supported the club - and I struggle to get angered or overly emotional about teams we’re not actually playing (York on the other hand…). But… I believe it’s been 14 years since we last met ‘the old enemy’ and it reflects how far we’ve come as a club in the last 12 (since our fall from grace and out of the football league) years that we’re meeting, not thanks to some fortuitous cup draw but, in the same league. Hoping it’ll be a good, inevitably feisty game (and the fact that it hasn’t been chosen for TV - with Sky Sports and the EFL opting to air for the jazzier classic of Wycombe vs Swansea - is quite frankly laughable).
The game I’m least looking forward to…
Wycombe. They play anti-football and against us seem to want to time-waste from the moment the game starts. Also if I have to listen to Gareth Ainsworth bang on (and on) about how little money they have and how they have the smallest budget in the league (regardless of what league they’re in) on Three Counties Radio I’m going to scream.
xO - eXpected Occurrence - A fair few ex-Hatters will score against us
In terms of worrying trends (and this is probably something that will resonate with most fans) the haunting of clubs by previous players. Last season we seemed particularly adept at conceding to ex-Hatter - most in very frustrating circumstances.
The stand out one here for me is Isaac Vassell who after desperate attempts from us to re-sign before the close of the first transfer window we ended up getting gazumped for by Cardiff - who were facing that weekend. The inevitability that he would come off the bench and score the winner against us was made all the more painful by how obvious it was, the fact that I hadn’t put a bet on it happening and that it happened in the 96th and final minute of the game. Also to rub salt into what was already a pretty damn salty wound - this would turn out to be the only goal of his entire season (in which he managed just 46 mins - enough time though to ensure he denied us of a point & secured all three for his new club).
This trend is slightly worrying as entering in this season there’s an addition of an extra four Hatters (would’ve been five but Newcastle have, rather wisely, snapped up the excellent Jamal Lewis from Norwich) into the division from the Premier League:
Jack Stacey
Max Aarons (who we’re all praying goes to Bayern so we get a sell-on fee and don’t have to face his talented self)
Akin Famewo
And... Andre Gray who no doubt will play some annoyingly huge part in our first game against the old enemy in 14 years
What/who I’m most grateful for…
The board. Financially astute (and most importantly responsible) now more than ever I’m so grateful to have these wonderful custodians of our club at the helm. Inclusive and principled in everything they do - they’re ambitious and entrepreneurial whilst never stretching the club beyond its means. They back their managers but aren’t shy of taking decisive decisions if they feel it’ll benefit the club in the long term (which is the only way they think). They’re progressing things on the new stadium front and applying for our Academy to get its Cat 2 status (which would enable us to develop and nurture even more young talent of the likes of Justin, Cauley Woodrow, Jack Wilshere, Curtis Davies to name but a few. In terms of goal setting - naming yourself ‘Luton Town 2020 Ltd’ with the goal of being back in the Championship and with planning permission on a new stadium at the time, 12 years ago, seemed punchy - but they’ve absolutely nailed it. No matter where we finish - we rest assured that we are in the safest and most capable hands.
PREDICTIONS
With my jaunty looking optimistic hat on:
I reckon Nathan will continue to instill his philosophy into the players. Sluga will show why we broke our transfer fee record to sign him and keep some wonderfully clean sheets. Our fullbacks will rack up a decent amount of assists and we’ll solidify a reliable starting XI and the team (after a solid pre-season) will come out fighting and set us up for a healthy mid-table finish. Finishing place: 13th.
With my pessimistic hat on - who proactively puts on a pessimistic hat?
Nathan’s positive initial impact finally runs out. Our host of primarily League One players (in terms of experience) get found out. Without CCV the defence continues to capitulate at a rate of knots and we concede a lot of goals. Glen Rea gets injured leaving us with little in the way of a replacement and we have to survive by nicking whatever goals we can on the break. Torrid and stressful relegation battle but ending up exhausted and safe. Finishing place: 21st.
And finally with my realistic hat on… perhaps a bit of a cup run. Some decent signings ensure we’re not in as much of a final day scrap as last season and we secure another season (and set of investable TV funds) in this incredible league. Finishing place: 17th.
Regardless of which of my imaginary hatters shaped hats ends up being closest I rest easy knowing that, as a Luton fan, it’s inevitably going to be anything but dull.
For this and other (less waffley) Luton chat follow @LutonAnalytics on Twitter. Also if you want more of this direct in your inbox (hit the subscribe button 👇).
This is part of a much wider #TheBigChampPreview project organised by @BeesAnalytica - if you fancy reading up similar pieces on the teams we’ll be facing this year in the Championship check the hub out here.
APPENDIX
Players Out - Others
Lloyd Jones - 24 - CB - Went out on fairly successful loans to Northampton and Plymouth - reckon he’ll be snapped up soon enough. A victim of our back-to-back promotions as it meant he wasn’t ever really challenging for a first team spot
Jake Jervis - 28 - ST - Signed as a Plan B striker for a Plan B that never got used - has recently been signed for Finnish club SJK
Marek Stech 29 - GK - The larger than life Czech keeper once dubbed 'the next Petr Cech' - I think solely because he was younger & from the same country. He's been snapped up by Mansfield.
Frankie Musonda - 22 - RB/CB - the promising youngster has been kept in and around the first team setup without ever breaking through (unlike his cohorts Justin & Famewo - now at Norwich) he's now up in Scotland playing for Raith Rovers and we will all be watching on to follow what we hope will be a decent and long career.